Global demand for Li-ion batteries is expected to soar over the next decade, with the number of GWh required increasing from about 700 GWh in 2022 to around 4.7 TWh by 2030 (Exhibit 1). Batteries for mobility applications, such as electric vehicles (EVs), will account for the vast bulk of demand in 2030—about 4,300 GWh; an unsurprising trend seeing. The global battery value chain, like others within industrial manufacturing, faces significant environmental, social, and governance (ESG) challenges (Exhibit 3). Together with GBA members representing the entire battery value chain, McKinsey has identified 21 risks along ESG dimensions: 1. Environmental:The extraction and refining of raw materials. Some recent advances in battery technologies include increased cell energy density, new active material chemistries such as solid-state batteries, and cell and packaging production technologies, including electrode dry coating and cell-to-pack design (Exhibit 11). When making investments decisions, battery manufacturers could find these rapid advan. The 2030 outlook for the battery value chain depends on three interdependent elements (Exhibit 12): 1. Supply-chain resilience. A resilient battery value chain is one that is regionalized and diversified. We envision that each region will cover over 90 percent of local cell demand, over 80 percent of local active material demand, and over 60 percen. Battery manufacturers may find new opportunities in recycling as the market matures. Companies could create a closed-loop, domestic supply chain that involves the collection, recycling, reuse, or repair of used Li-ion batteries. The recycling industry alone could create a $6 billion profit pool by 2040, by which time revenue could exceed $40 billio.
